Barack Obama’s one year report card

One out of every five!

Obama made several promises during his campaign days, but precious few seem to have been realised. Will America and the world cherish his presidency the same way they had welcomed it? For that to happen, Obama will have to live up to expectations that could be well beyond his reach.

It is quite normal for elected candidates to bear the burden of expectations. What makes Obama peculiar is the scale and magnitude of expectations that he carries. That has in part to do with the symbolism of his election. But that’s a small part, as a majority has to do with all the promises of change he made. Contrary to the expectations of 75,000 supporters and 365 electoral votes, the P.O.T.U.S [President of the United States] Barack Obama has not delivered the change that they could believe in.

Ironically, a person whose campaign was all about “Yes, we can,” hasn’t accomplished much of what he promised. His stimulus package creditably prevented a probable catastrophic financial crash. Yes, it hasn’t nudged the unemployment figures by much, something Obama accepts now. Obama’s flagship agenda of the health care bill is still awaiting its time in the sun. The same goes for his much hyped climate change bill. In his recent State-of-the-Union speech on 27 January, 2010, Obama promised something that is quite the opposite of what he had stood for in his campaign days. Instead of talking about green jobs and climate change policy, he discussed his plans on nuclear power, oil, gas, coal and bio-fuels! That’s change indeed!

The major blows for his supporters so far has been his failure in closing the Guantanamo Bay prison and also in providing relief for illegal immigrants, which he promised and initiated in the initial period of his presidency. Even after a year, Gitmo is active and no concrete policy has been designed for illegal migrants. What is most surprising is that his promises of closing Gitmo and solving other human rights issues were part of the parcel that won him the coveted Nobel Peace Prize. The leading entity PolitiFact found that Obama has kept around 91 of his promises... out of 500!

But Obama’s fall from grace is perfectly well in line with his predecessors. History bears testimony to the fact that not one President of the United States has been able to meet any kind of unrealistic deadlines or unrealistic promises. Quoting from one of our previous surveys, take for instance Woodrow Wilson who promised to keep the US out of World War I and ended up pushing the US into the same war. Then came Herbert Hoover in 1928, who, in his presidency speech, pledged to end poverty and promised “a chicken in every pot and two cars in every garage”– but eventually gifted the US ‘The Great Depression’ and gave many chickens a new lease of life! By the end of 1932, the unemployment figure touched the 24.9% mark with around 5,000 banks failing. Following the trend, Franklin D. Roosevelt graciously ‘un’met his 1932 pledge to maintain balanced budgets and to keep the US out of World War II. He bombed Japan and his government’s spending increased from 8.0% of GNP to 10.2%. The national debt, in turn, doubled from 16% to 33.6%. Richard Nixon promised resolutely in 1968 to ‘quickly’ resolve the Vietnam War. He didn’t! George H.W. Bush Senior promised in 1988, “Read my lips: No new taxes!” For records, he increased taxes and strangely parted with exclusions for high-income taxpayers. It seems that Obama, is on his way to keeping the spirit of freedom alive and kicking.

Nothing can indicate this more than Obama’s southward moving rating graph. His approval rating has dropped from 67% in 2009 to 50% today, the lowest ever rating at the end of a president’s first year term. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were the only other presidents polled who, like Obama, started their second years as president in the 50s (percentage wise), earning 55% and 54%, respectively. Then there’s more. A YouGov Polimetrix poll for The Economist found that 51% people think Obama says what people want to hear and not what he believes in. The same poll further reveals that a huge percentage disapproves the way Barack Obama is handling the Iraq issue (43% disapproval), the economy (47%), immigration (47%), terrorism (42%), health care (45%), social security (43%) and the Afghan war (49%).

Obama’s sycophantic speeches haven’t helped his cause post election so far. And beyond any apprehension, the second year will be even tougher. With Obama losing support (and majority) at the Senate, passing health care bills, moving his immigration policy further and ensuring more green jobs will become harder. But then as his campaign showed, Obama is known to be at his best with his back to the wall, at least when it comes to giving off his spiel against countries like India and China and the business threats they pose to the future of America. Irrespective of his spiel, there would be five simian issues that Obama would find hard to get off his back in the coming year. The IIPM Think Tank provides its analysis of the list.  

Obama promise: healthcare

Every time he promised to negotiate healthcare reforms in public during his two year long campaign, Obama won applause all around. His campaign rhetoric went thus, “We’ll have doctors and nurses and hospital administrators. Insurance companies, drug companies – they’ll get a seat at the table, they just won’t be able to buy every chair... That approach, I think, is what is going to allow people to stay involved in this process.”

Studies by the Department of Health and Human Services estimate that health spending will grow an average of 6.2% a year in the coming decade, to $4.4 trillion in 2018, which makes the whole issue about healthcare insurance more pertinent. The healthcare bill, if passed, would have required all US citizens’ to have a health insurance and would subsidise premiums for many. This would enable families to cut their medical costs by around $2,500 a year. But the bill has faced many hurdles, especially from lawmakers & an already burdened Treasury.

The malaise in health insurance currently is too deep and malignant, and it all is expounded in the face of some clearly nonchalant insurance plans. For example, in some private plans, women are charged up to 48% more than men for exactly the same medical service. Even a Caesarean section is considered a pre-existing condition. In fact, some plans even consider a victim of domestic abuse as having a pre-existing condition (and thus deny insurance). As per a few studies, lack of health insurance is responsible for more than 48,000 deaths every year in the US. Critics say that the whole industry is now like an organised mafia. If one plays to the hooters gallery, then it’s easy to see that while the private insurance industry is more concerned about (ensuring?) healthcare denial, the CEOs in this sector were pretty well looked after – CEO packages of ten large insurance companies averaged around $11 million in 2008.

So it’s not only about providing American’s with better medical service but also about breaking the existing mafia by private insurance companies. And Obama is clearly fighting a losing battle. 

Issues that are imortant to ponder upon

human rights

Obama and the services of his lip

2009 was been a busy year for all those who battled against human rights violations. Human rights activists were busy campaigning for a range of issues; from people harassed in places like Gaza and Sri Lanka to illegal prisons, genocides and bonded labour.

Amidst all these, there was a ‘ray of hope’ in the form of America’s new President. Obama’s promises like closing Guantanamo Bay’s prison, bringing peace in Central Asia, decreasing troops in Iraq, et al brought in some good news for the activists. But by the end of 2009, all this has turned out to be more or less a service of the lip. To worsen matters, many other human rights scandals like BlackWater (in Iraq), sexual harassments of Tamil women in refugee camps, debate over arrest warrant of Omar Bashir (the Sudanese president) and the recent news of resurfacing of ‘Blood Diamond’ activities have shamed the world. According to recent reports by various NGOs, blood diamonds are still trading freely and smuggling is quite rampant. Both Human Rights Watch and UN’s Kimberley Process want such countries to be suspended out of diamond trade; but unfortunately, no concrete action has been ordered so far. While the beginning of 2009 gave some hope to human rights activists, they have found themselves back to square one in 2010 – rather, a few steps backward. Since no major breakthrough happened in 2009, the whole of 2010 will obviously be a busy season for both the activists and abusers. Issues regarding war crimes and illegal prisons will continue to be paramount. Even numerous pending and ignored cases at the International Court of Justice are expected to be closed due to huge media pressure. In addition, 2010 is anticipated to be a year where the residual factors (war crimes) of war and conflicts will take centre stage.  

domestic violence

Closed doors...

Over the past few decades, the laws regarding domestic violence have grown from being mere laws to providing safety for victims. Many countries have seen a surge in deployment of special and dedicated teams of police, advocates, courts and experts; thus making the fight against domestic violence a priority. However, prosecution of repeated violators is not being handled properly.

Talking in terms of numbers, domestic violence has seen a rise, during the last decade, especially in the ‘developed’ western countries. Moreover, along with cases of domestic violence against women, even issues regarding domestic violence towards men have surfaced. Between 1989 and 2004, around 9000 men died in domestic violence. Many international bodies under the aegis of UNICEF, like ‘The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women’, ‘Convention on the Rights of the Child’, and ‘the Platform for Action adopted at the Fourth International Conference on Women’, are trying to fight this social malaise at their level. But the progress seems to be snail-paced due to lack of effective mechanisms at a global level. A WHO multi-country study reflects, “Between 10% & 52% of women reported being physically abused by an intimate partner... between 10% & 30% said they had experienced sexual violence by an intimate partner. Between 10% & 27% of women and girls reported having been sexually abused...” Even today, many African and Asian countries (like Angola, Nigeria & Bangladesh) don’t have laws safeguarding women from domestic violence. Only a few third world countries (like Hong Kong) have adopted laws on same-sex domestic violence while most third world countries are yet to accept the existence of such relationships.

With the battle not even half won, the fight against this problem will be a prominent issue at all socio-global forums in 2010. With an increasing number of women entering political and economic chambers, we should hopefully see some progress this year.

water scarcity

The new gold

With the water table depleting, agricultural land is losing its fertility as dangerously – if not faster. Almost all developed and developing countries are leaving no stone unturned to save water and keep the land arable. In 2007, the Spanish government fined citizens caught watering their plants with 9,000 euros. Cyprus is buying water from Greece, and Australian cities are buying water to help their farmers. On one hand, China is planning to redirect Himalayan water, and on the other, California is planning a water-rationing system.

Presently, around ten corporate magnates dominate the global drinking water industry. This whole business model of purchasing ‘water laden land’ is not as simple as it seems. Rich countries have started a land-grabbing process. Countries like China, Kuwait and Sweden are snapping up vast tracts of agricultural land in third world nations (mainly in Africa) under the veil of outsourcing their agriculture, but actually, they are eying the vast reserves of water these lands contain! Recently, Korean company Daewoo also plunged into this business by considering a 99-year lease on 1.3 million hectares of Madagascar land. Middle-East countries, which have huge drinking water problems, are well into this business. While Qatar is trying to grab 40,000 hectares in Kenya, UAE is targeting 30,000 hectares in Sudan. And the common feature among all these deals is that these lands contain huge water reserves. With the global bottled water market slated to have a value of $86.4 billion by 2011, grabbing fertile land serves a dual purpose – using the land to produce extra crops to mitigate the food crisis and also creating a potential market for bottled water, especially in third world countries. By 2025, over 1.4 billion people in 36 countries will be without adequate drinking water.

Water is being deemed as the ‘new oil’; and war over water would be no surprise in 2010. It seems that the gold rush is only waiting for a sequel. The new gold is sans any colour or lustre; but it’s definitely far more precious!

greening the transport

Green and guilt-free mobility

 When it comes to mass transportation, green options are being developed aplenty, but almost all are failing the economic viability test. The IIPM Think Tank analyses the economic and social benefit of contemporary machines that will be green, clean and fast – but not necessarily in the same order of priority!

Ice Age, Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age... one would think that we should have come of age after going through these multiple bouts of evolution. But then, mankind has had the penchant for reinventing itself every now and then.

We have displayed that ability exceptionally well with respect to our transport system. The invention of the wheel started it all. Evolution kept ‘happening’, till the time when the entire connotation of transport took a whole new meaning with the invention of the internal combustion engine (that used petrol and petroleum by-products), which laid the foundation stone of modern transportation and gave birth to a huge population of fuel-guzzlers and carbon-emitting machines. It also gave us the concept of black gold; for which many wars have been fought, apart from the spectre of pollution – that has not only contributed to global warming, but also has been the leading reason for cancer.

In the late 20^th century, countries started to re-calculate the negative effect of mass transportation on the environment. The focus on power and speed started getting replaced with a focus on green transportation, at least in policy circles, to an extent that the vision of having green transport systems became no longer confined to a few developed countries (In most developed countries, on an average, transport systems consume between 20-25% of total energy – an issue that is motivating the developed nations faster towards alternative less energy consuming systems). Despite all the hullaballoo about the ecological benefits, the clear fact is that the economic benefits of the so called ‘green’ alternatives are absent, and in many cases, too prohibitive for Third World nations (the costs to implement such eco-friendly systems is beyond logical levels and extraordinarily huge – this is an insurmountable impediment considering that even at the current level, almost all public transport systems, irrespective of which nations we consider, are more or less running on losses).

The last decade saw the growth of numerous green systems. But most of them, by the turn of the decade, did not find takers. The much touted hybrids are a key example. A conservative estimate shows that the sale of hybrid vehicles, after so many years of promotion, constitutes just about 2.9% of total automobile sales. Similarly, usage of vehicles using natural gas (called CNG in some countries) is largely confined to transit buses and a few other modes of public transport. Hydrogen fuelled vehicles, even today, remain limited due to lack of a proper fuel distribution network. Electric vehicles have not caught the customer’s fancy due to high battery costs and recharge issues. Even though auto giants are already working on prototype cars powered by fuel cells like Mitsubishi i-MiEV and Nissan Leaf, their time will be tested only when they’re introduced. And the lesser said about the concept of high-speed railways and green air transport systems, the better (even though the bio-fuel based Virgin Galactic airline does stand out in its promise of making the carbon cost of each flight come down to 60% of a conventional aircraft’s).

Strangely, a few initiatives to reduce emissions from current mass transport systems have worked better than the ‘green’ lot, especially considering the fact that oil reserves – by recent estimates – are perhaps never going to get depleted in the near future (or even far, for that matter). In France, pollution-free nuclear electricity has helped trains reduce the carbon emission rate. Researchers are en route to developing more efficient and effective catalytic converters that would further break down the toxicity of vehicle emissions. Auto manufacturers are even focussed on bettering mileages on automobiles with every passing year. For example, as per US Department of Energy data, while the Toyota Landcruiser gave 12 miles per gallon (mpg) on the highway in 1985, the 2010 model gives 18 mpg. The Camary is better, giving close to 35 mpg in 2010!

It’s evident that rather than attempting to invest magnanimously in green spheres that have very less or almost no guarantee of succeeding, there’s heavier credence for attempting to improve what can be done in a short time – the mpg example of Toyota being a totem pole. Can the world stand up to that?                   

Let’s just fly a lot lower 

 

High speed railway systems have the potential to bring about rapid progress in the war against warming

By now, the fact that the Copenhagen meet added 46,200 tonnes of carbon dioxide, most of it from flights, has become a cliché that has overdone itself. But the illogic fails to resolve the paradox that avoiding air travel or going to such meetings is not only impossible, but can even put paid to various developmental measures. But then, what can reduce per capita contribution of carbon and limit its harmful impact on environment?

Many countries are readily investing in environment friendly mode of transport. In this long list of green transport initiatives, countries are going ga-ga over the latest high-speed railway system aka HSR. This craziness makes for good social sense; especially after analysing the recent Eurostar research. The study by Eurostar shows that the train to Paris from London, cuts CO₂ emissions per passenger by a jaw dropping 90% when compared to flying on the same route. Going beyond numbers, the environmental benefit due to HSR is more than what any empirical research reveals. As airliners emit their CO₂ directly into the upper atmosphere, the impact on environment is much severe.

While the Manchester City Council within UK was an early starter in the HSR revolution – precisely to tap on the increase in efficiency and its environment friendly attributes – most of the developed countries (mostly European) like France, Spain and Germany are already supporting the HSR concept. A few other European countries have also decided to join the HSR network, thus linking the UK and Europe with HSR network in near future.

Reducing the amount of CO₂ is just one aspect of HSR as it also comes with added benefits. To a large extent, it solves traffic congestion and air pollution problems. Comprehending this fact, Japan has extended its bullet train network by 76%, thus linking almost all its cities. Europe has decided to add an extra 1,711 more miles by 2010 under a similar program. Thanks to HSR, the air travel frequency between Paris-to-Brussels has almost disappeared after opening up of the HSR link.

What is most astounding is that this HSR model can be emulated in developing countries too. Third world countries will not only benefit due to ‘technology-leapfrogging’ but will also experience a boost in other sectors. They will obviously have a second mover advantage and can reduce loss (by analysing the success model of HSR already in place) and customise the model as per requirement and infrastructure. Implementation of HSR will augment their infrastructure and employment. Besides this, if HSR links the urban and rural areas, it will also decrease urban migration (urban sprawl) and help bridge the rural-urban divide. With proper planning, HSR can give rise to mid-sized cities and satellite towns in developing (and highly populated) Asian nations. Proper planning can surely make HSR a successful socially beneficial model and a landmark social initiative in the third world. Green HSR is, without even an iota of apprehension, a credible answer to carbon emitting short distance air travel.

But governments have to be clear about the fact that private investment would be far and few, as the ‘business’ model, for lack of a better term, doesn’t exist. That the HSR concept would be loss making is a surety from day one. Therefore, the government has to take the initiative. For example, the Chinese government has recently launched the fastest HSR (CRH3) on the planet – trains with an average speed of 217 mph covering a total distance of 663 miles connecting over 20 cities (connecting less developed regions to the metros) and is further planning to expand it to 42 more HSR lines by 2012.